What’s more American than mowing your lawn with a Budlight?

Correlating spikes in pizza orders with massive government decisions.

This Twitter account tracks traffic at pizzerias near the Pentagon and the White House.

Why?

Because many believe (or delight in the thought) that a sudden spike in pizza orders signals something big is happening, like officials burning the midnight oil to prep for major military decisions. For example: Will the U.S. join Israel in striking Iran? Ya know, light stuff.

It’s funny. It’s weird. And maybe… it’s not totally wrong.

Lucky for you, it got me thinking: What other strange “indicators” are out there? What breadcrumbs are being tracked by 40-year-old Redditors and hedge funds that might hint at where the world is headed next?

Enjoy this rapid-fire dump of oddball economic and geopolitical signals that intel nerds and finance bros keep on coffee-stained sticky notes next to their 5 computer screens. Many are heavy in vibes-based folklore and light in objective data. But some are surprisingly revelatory, like canaries in a coal mine.

My girlfriend loves the concept of the Lipstick index, the idea that women buy more lipstick during recessions, seeking “affordable luxuries.” Hate to yuck her yum, it’s fun, but it’s weak.

But the Men’s Underwear Index? Shit goes pretty hard. Rumor has it that former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, used it as a way of tracking economic recovery from downturns.

Why? The logic is beautifully simple, like so many men: they only replace underwear when they feel financially secure. If boxers _{hopefully briefs} are being bought, vibes are looking sunny.

Remember that blip on your feed about Syria’s regime collapsing last December?

Turns out, tracking private jet departures isn’t just useful for finding billionaires at the Superbowl or the Formula 1 race in Monaco.

In countries facing instability (I’m asking this euphemism to do a lot here), or massive turbulence _hehe, a sudden exodus of Gulfstreams from the capital is a serious intel red flag.

When elites are fleeing, quietly and en masse, something is about to break. The writing is on the wall, size 200 font.

Why hang around _Saddam and get Gaddafi’d when you can pull an Assad and peace out to Moscow?

You’ve probably heard of the Waffle House Index (FEMA literally uses it to gauge disaster severity based on whether Waffle Houses stay open in the splash zone).

But that’s too mainstream. Let’s talk _{Trump voice} CHINA. Ever since their main man, Xi Jinping, has been in power for over a decade, it’s become much harder for analysts to access basic economic indicators. The data is usually withheld or distorted.

So how do they know what’s really happening? Nighttime satellite imagery.

They track light output to estimate industrial (and military) activity.

Meanwhile, Wall Street happens to do the same thing in the U.S., using satellite data to count cars in Walmart parking lots before earnings reports. More cars = more spending = better quarter.

Big Brother? Nope. Just Big Hedge Fund.

The pattern holds across millennia: humans unintentionally give off readable signals in the strangest places. And we love trying to find the meaning in them.

Your ancestors were reading the metadata of civilization long before we had a word for it:

Human activity always leaks signals, sometimes through gold, sometimes through crap.

These indicators work because they often capture unconscious behavior. Nobody thinks "I should order pizza to signal geopolitical tension" or "I'll buy underwear to demonstrate economic confidence." But in aggregate, these actions create readable patterns.

Some of these indicators are goofy. Some are flawed. But a few are signal, offering real, early warnings. Sometimes enough to trade on, to prepare for, or at least to feel slightly less in the dark.

So what bread crumbs are we not tracking?

What mundane behavior is hiding in plain sight, already signaling the tsunami, long before we see the water recede?

Because somewhere right now, someone's ordering an unusual amount of pizza.
And it might just mean something.

Thanks for taking the Pack,

Zach

_{The vibe-killer disclaimer: The opinions in this post and all other posts only represent myself and do not represent the opinions of my employer or any groups I am a member of.
This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.}