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Growth Is Quiet, Bad News Is Loud
The big things start small
Welcome to Z-Pack:.your antidote to the 24/7 news cycle. Cut through the noise, understand what matters, and get on with your week - in 5 minutes
If this is your first Z-Pack, welcome - I'm Zach.
âŹď¸ Letâs get it

Growth Is Quiet, Bad News Is Loud
Everyone seems to be feeling a little anxious these days, given⌠current events.
So I figured Iâd share some insights to help get you through the weekâa comforting framework to make sense of things.
Letâs talk about⌠economic sanctions!!! Everyoneâs favorite, exhilarating topic. I know I know, just stay with me. Give me 30 seconds.
Itâll be like ripping off a bandaid: brief pain, and then relief.
As a quick refresh: sanctions are penalties or restrictions imposed by one country (or group of countries) against another country, individual, or organization, often for political, security, or humanitarian reasons. Theyâre usually used as a tool of foreign policy to punish naughty countries.
When you hear sanctions, you may think of countries like Russia, North Korea, or Iran. Countries use sanction to pressure the target into changing behavior or policy (e.g., ending human rights abuses, halting nuclear weapons programs).
They can be broad (affecting an entire country) or targeted (focused on specific individuals, companies, or industries).
Examples include
Freezing foreign assets of a government or individual (remember all the Russian oligarchsâ yachts getting seized a few years ago? See here)
Banning trade in specific goods (e.g., arms, oil, technology)
Restricting access to financial systems
Which brings us to Dwarkesh Patelâs incredible interview with Sarah Paine.
Sarah is a professor of history and strategy at the US Naval War College.
At one point in their conversation, Dwarkesh cites economist Tyler Cowen, who wrote in one of his books:
If U.S. economic growth rates had been 1% lower every year from 1890 to the 20th century, the U.S. per capita GDP would be lower than that of Mexicoâs
âŚâŚâŚâŚ.Excuse me???
This is when Sarah shares some bonkers info.
She responds to Dwarkesh, saying, âthis is how sanctions work. People look at sanctions and go, âOh, they donât work because you donât make whoeverâs annoying you change whatever theyâre doing. What they do is they suppress growth so that whoeverâs annoying you over time, youâre stronger and theyâre weaker. And the example of the impact of sanctions is compare North and South Korea. Itâs powerful over several generations.â

the intensity of nighttime lights often correlates with the level of economic activity in a region, especially when reliable economic data is scarce
This ideaâthat small, consistent actions shape outcomes over timeâapplies far beyond geopolitics.
Take what James Clear writes in his bestseller Atomic Habits â
If you improve by just 1% every day, the results compound. The initial effects are small, but over time, the differences are massive.
Sound familiar? (please say yes)
Itâs the same principle. Sanctions. Habits.
Or even take long-term investing.
Charlie Munger (Warren Buffetâs longtime partner - RIP) once said:
The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.
You donât see the results overnight, but give it time, and the rewards are exponential.
But hereâs the best part:
While sanctions or index funds might take generations to see their full impact, personal growth doesnât have to!
Progress often happens slowly but steadily.
It rewards patience, not speed.
Still, itâs hard to feel patient. And itâs even harder when bad news is everywhere.
Thatâs why I kept coming back to this line on good news vs. bad news from Morgan Houselâs book Same As Ever:
Good news comes from compounding, which takes time.
Bad news? Itâs instant.
Good news is the tragedies avoided, the diseases you didnât get, the wars that never happened. Bad news is in your face.
Hereâs the problem youâre facing though: your brain has spent tens of thousands of years honing in on bad news as a survival strategy.
But the world has changed. We havenât had thousands of years for our brains to adapt to this flood of bad newsâjust a few decades.
So the next time the bad feels overwhelming, or the next time youâre losing your patience with your goals, remember: the best things are growing quietly in the background.
Keep showing up. Keep compounding. Keep trusting the process.
The growth youâre waiting for? Itâs already in motion. You just canât see it yet.
Thanks for taking the Pack,
Zach
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â JP đŁ (@Awakenjp)
5:20 PM ⢠Jan 21, 2025
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â Brad Johnson, CFA (@brad_johnson6)
6:42 AM ⢠Jan 23, 2025
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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