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Everything they stole from my girlfriend

My girlfriend was convinced that Trump robbed her of her favorite thing: conspiracy theories.

At least, that’s what she thought. While she is right about many (most) things, she was wrong about this one.

I guess I should clarify that her beef is that she used to love harmless conspiracy theories (i.e. Tupac is living in the Bahamas, Avril Lavigne died and someone replaced her without telling, etc.). But now she feels like she can’t say she loves them without “sounding like a flat-earther.”

So let’s talk about why she should consider updating her perspective on conspiracy theories👇

“Wait what the hell is this podcast you linked to just now?” ok ok ok guys I’ll tell 🤗

Here’s the short and skinny: it turns out that, based on polling data, it’s not mainly Republicans peddling conspiracies — people from both political sides tend to believe in various conspiracy theories at about the same rate.

Whuuuuuuuut.

Those of you who know me pretty well would’ve assumed (correctly) that I thought conspiracy theories were more common on the conservative end of the spectrum.

But, my dear friends, I was wrong…

(y’all’s reaction below)

For example, for several past presidential elections in the U.S., based on data from the episode I linked above, a significant portion of the losing party believed in election fraud, with 30-50% typically thinking the outcome was rigged.

Real quick - let’s define what we mean by conspiracy theories in this context. This podcast had a great definition — think of them as explanations involving a small, secretive group with high agency/power that’s conspiring against the general populace, which is considered to have low agency/powerless.

For example, the existence of the Illuminati or how 9/11 was an inside job. The other stuff that doesn’t involve a group conspiring, like Big Foot or flat earthers, aren’t considered conspiracies because there’s no secret plotting.

Let’s get back on track - based on the last ~15 years of polling data, people have not increasingly believed in conspiracy theories, despite your nutty uncle spraying from the hip on Facebook about 9/11 being an inside job.

You probably felt like me on this - I thought more people had been buying into conspiracies, probably because so many media outlets publish so many stories on them!

Another reason I believed this was happening - the crazies now have a phone that lets them broadcast their insane thoughts to millions of people, when historically they would’ve been confined to their bedroom by social isolation for being.. crazy!

Lesson learned: just because you hear about it more doesn’t mean it’s actually more prevalent.

In fact, you could argue that people actually believe in less BS and misinformation, since they now have access to more reliable information - thank you, Internet!

For example, when my friend was a kid, his mom thought rubbing honey on his wasp sting would heal it. That kind of stuff is still around but much less common than before.

So here’s the.. not so great news (I’m going to reference this great book, The Revolt of the Public, by author and former CIA analyst, Martin Gurri):

Like I hinted at before, the Internet has given a voice to many who never had one, which has led to a Katrina-level flood of information. Although there are less people who believe in conspiracies, this flood of information has still confused people to the point that they’ve been losing trust in institutions and governments.

How did the Internet lead to this? Pre-Internet, governments had a monopoly on information — they could control the public conversation by contacting their homies at the handful of big dog media outlets that 90% of people read and got their information from.

Clearly that’s not the case anymore!

As Barstool founder Dave Portnoy once mentioned: “my dad used to religiously read the New York Times every day.”

Thanks to the Internet, people like Dave were able to start their own media empires which compete for attention with the NYT. All this new competition is why the NYT has basically transformed itself into a gaming website.

In the midst of our confusion and “crisis of authority” we’re experiencing as a result of unlimited access to so much information, it was only a matter of time before someone, like Trump, showed up as an agent of chaos. He brought anti-establishment, conspiratorial folks into the Republican base. This changed its composition. The conspiracy theories he promoted (his OG lie about Obama’s birth, the Deep State, etc.) contributed to his position as the outsider with the “new” answers that would save us from the Wild West of the Internet. Why do you think RFK Jr. joined Trump? That’s their common thread — branding themselves as an outsider with conspiratorial answers and appeal.

To wrap things up: both sides suffer from conspiratorial thinkers at about similar rates (mainly white, non-educated people on the right and young minorities on the left, according to the episode), even though Trump has brought the spotlight to his party.

The rise of the Internet paved the way for an “outsider,” like Trump (and other similar figures in other countries), to gain power by campaigning on burning down the status-quo - no prescription, just the poison.

Conspiracies aren’t on the rise, but this widespread negativity that the media pushes (because WE, the people, love negative news) has got me shaking in my boots a little — it fuels this general nihilistic, “burn it all down” psychology that you see across the left and right.

I’m not a big fan of this nihilism, end-of-the-world branding and conspiracy.

So I guess I should blame mainly the Internet, not so much Trump and the Republicans, for taking conspiracies from my girlfriend.

Thanks for taking the Pack,

Zach

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