Welcome to Z-Pack:.for the next little while, we’ll be trying out one post a day on one topic in 2 minutes ⚡️ so let me know what you think of this change in the survey below!

If this is your first Z-Pack, welcome - I'm Zach.

I’m chronically online, finding out how the world works.

⬇️ Let’s get it.

❌ The end of homicide

What are the vibes and headlines saying? Everything is so dangerous! Beware!!

The reality? Homicides are dropping fast all across the U.S. - and violent crime is even lower now than pre-pandemic.

Why should you care? I mean… killing people is … bad. And often we choose where to live based on crime and violence.

Why are we seeing this big decline?

Here’s one theory:

• There were big anti-police protests in 2020

• So, many police departments decided to react by literally just doing less (…they can do that?), ergo the police conducted big informal protests of inaction, like in San Francisco.

  • To my progressives - we have an abundance of evidence that police do reduce crime and homicides, but we do still need big reform of the police

• Since police were responding less, repeat offenders committed more homicides

  • If you’re curious, most violent crime is done by a very small % of young men who are repeat offenders. So yes, the 90s term “super predators” for referring to this small group is pretty accurate

Darrell Owens, former housing policy analyst, adds to this by reminding us of how most violent crime is interpersonal -

“The record decline in homicides, even as police vacancies remain high, shows the interpersonal nature of gun homicides. That it really is just an epidemic of bored young men and boys shooting each other over immature gossip. And that lockdowns made them go haywire.”

Will this trend in declining homicides continue?

• On the side of optimism, I’d say “yes,” but I don’t know how low it’ll go compared to the past 🤔

  • Given that most crime is committed by native-born, young men in their teenage years to early twenties, I think that the rise in video games and social media and other distractions will pacify them enough

  • Hopefully we’ll also reform our police force so we get more murder detectives to solve more murder cases

• My cynical side pushes a darker tale - the increase in social isolation and gun ownership will make homicides worse 😅

Want a deeper dive on police reform? Check out economist Noah Smith’s 2023 post here

Thanks for taking the Pack,

Zach

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.